TOR:CON

The Tornado Conditions Index, or TOR:CON, also casually referred to as TORCON or Torcon, is a system in which the probability of a tornado occurring within 50 miles of any point within a region is indicated on a scale of 1 to 10. The system was created by The Weather Channel, and severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes is in charge of assigning TOR:CON values during a potential or occurring severe outbreak. Unlike similarly named and abbreviated systems used by the US military, such as DEFCON and HURCON, the system does not count down with increasing danger, but rather counts up.
Values
TOR:CON 0:
Near-zero percent chance of a tornado or severe thunderstorm within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region.
TOR:CON 1:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 10%. Generally, there is a slight risk of damaging winds or large hail.
TOR:CON 2:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 20%. Generally, there is a higher risk for damaging winds or large hail.
TOR:CON 3:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 30%. At this point severe thunderstorms with damaging winds or large hail are likely in the area, but something is limiting tornado conditions.
TOR:CON 4:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 40%. Isolated tornadoes are likely, and severe thunderstorms are very likely.
TOR:CON 5:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 50%. Scattered tornadoes are likely. Severe thunderstorms are near-certain. Anyone living within the assigned region should keep an eye on the weather.
TOR:CON 6:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 60%. A tornado outbreak is possible, and severe thunderstorms are near-certain. Anyone living within the assigned region should keep an very close eye on the weather.
TOR:CON 7:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 70%. A tornado outbreak is likely, and severe thunderstorms are near-certain. Anyone living within the assigned region should keep an very close eye on the weather. Often this is a Particularly dangerous situation.
TOR:CON 8:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 80%. A major tornado outbreak is expected, and severe thunderstorms are basically certain. Anyone living within the assigned region should keep an very close eye on the weather, and keep track of all friends and family. Make sure a tornado disaster plan is in place. This is rarely not a Particularly dangerous situation.
TOR:CON 9:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is around 90%. A major tornado outbreak is imminent or occurring, and severe thunderstorms are certain. Anyone living within the assigned region should keep a constant eye on the weather, and keep track of all friends and family. Make sure a tornado disaster plan is in place. This is almost exclusively a Particularly dangerous situation.
TOR:CON 10:
Chance of a tornado within 50 miles of any location within the assigned region is 100%. A major tornado outbreak is occurring, and severe thunderstorms are certain. Anyone living within the assigned region should keep a constant eye on the weather, and keep track of all friends and family. You should assume all severe thunderstorms are capable of producing a tornado, and take cover even without a Tornado Warning being issued. Make sure a tornado disaster plan is in place. This has only been issued once, during a particularly dangerous situation and an SPC High Risk day, on April 27, 2011, during the 2011 Super Outbreak. Had TOR:CON existed at the time, this value would likely have been issued during the 1974 Super Outbreak

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