Gail Howard

Gail Howard sells books and computer software that claim to give a better chance of winning the lottery using "smart luck" (using her system) instead of what she calls "dumb luck" (playing other ways, including using quick picks).

Analysis of her system
Positive things about her system:
*People have fun picking the numbers
*People like thinking they are doing something to beat the odds
*People do have a good chance of winning multiple times if they pick all or most of the winning numbers

Negative things about her system :
*Time consuming without actually improving your odds
*False sense of having a better chance of winning may lead people to gamble more money than they otherwise would
*If several players use the same system to select their numbers, they have a better than normal chance of having to split their winnings if they actually do win

Criticism of claims made by Gail Howard

Most of the strategies used by Gail Howard use statistically valid probability - the problem comes from her interpretation of those probabilities.

This example uses information directly from Gail's website
"In the 49-number pick-6 lotto game, the most frequently occurring sum is 150, which is the Midpoint Sum.
The sums of lotto combinations can be compared to the sums of combinations on a pair of dice. On either end of the Bell Curve, there is only one way to make a 12 (boxcars, 6 and 6), and there is only one way to make a 2 (snake eyes, 1 and 1). But there are SIX ways to make a 7 (the top center point of a Bell Curve for a pair of dice). They are 6 and 1, 1 and 6, 5 and 2, 2 and 5, 4 and 3, 3 and 4. So, of course, it is much easier to throw a 7 in dice than any other number because there are more ways of getting the sum of 7. "

It is true that there is a better chance of getting a 7 than there is of getting a 2 or a 12. However, if you throw a pair of dice and have to predict the result like you do in the lottery, you have to predict which pair of dice will be rolled, not just what the sum of the two will be.
If you predict that the sum will be 7,you still have to say how the 7 will be rolled... maybe 2 and 5. You have a 1 in 6 probability of being right... however, you then only have a 1 in 6 chance of having the right combination that added up to 7, which leads to 1 in 36 chance of winning. (Having the right sum with the wrong combination of the dice is no better than having the wrong sum)

When you predict the sum will be 2, the only way to win is to roll a pair of ones. It is true that there is only a 1 in 36 chance of the sum being 2... but every time that sum shows up, you will win. The end result is a 1 in 36 chance of winning... the same as when you predict a 7.

The same is true if you pick something in between like 1 and 4 for a sum of 5. You have a 1 in 9 chance of having the right sum, but then you have a 1 in 4 chance of having the right combination.
Of course, the end result is still 1 in 36.

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