Next Baden-Württemberg state election

The 2031 Baden-Württemberg state election is scheduled to be held by 2031.

Background

In the 2026 election, the Greens remained the largest party with 30.2% of the vote and the CDU gained more than five percentage points, placing a narrow second on 29.7%, with both parties finishing on 56 seats. The AfD won 18.8% and 35 seats, almost doubling its previous performance. The SPD lost half its support and took 5.5% of the vote and 10 seats, the party's worst ever result in a state election since 1945. The FDP fell below 5% and for the first time lost representation in the state which is considered its stronghold.

Electoral system

The Landtag of Baden-Württemberg is elected through mixed-member proportional representation. 70 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. The remaining seats are allocated using compensatory proportional representation based on the second vote, distributed to state-wide party lists in accordance with the Sainte-Laguë method. The minimum size of the Landtag is 120 seats; however, overhang and leveling seats are added to ensure proportional representation at the state level. In 2026, 157 seats were allocated due to such adjustments. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes applies.

Opinion polling