List of marginal seats in the Canadian general election, 2015
Based on the transposition of votes from the 2011 election to the new ridings created under the 2012 redistribution, the following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in that election:
Marginal constituencies, based on 2012 redistribution, ranked by 2011 pro forma margin of victory |
|---|
Constituency |
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup |
Nipissing—Timiskaming |
Winnipeg North |
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford |
Mississauga—Malton |
Labrador |
Markham—Thornhill |
Yukon |
Scarborough—Guildwood |
Ahuntsic-Cartierville* |
Surrey—Newton |
Richmond—Arthabaska |
Etobicoke Centre |
Regina—Lewvan |
Lévis—Lotbinière |
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River |
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour |
Honoré-Mercier |
Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke |
Don Valley East |
Scarborough North |
Sydney—Victoria |
Elmwood—Transcona |
Louis-Saint-Laurent |
Willowdale |
Don Valley West |
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel |
London North Centre |
Kings—Hants |
Don Valley North |
Sault Ste. Marie |
Scarborough Centre* |
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount |
Waterloo |
Scarborough—Rouge Park* |
Scarborough Southwest |
Toronto Centre |
Malpeque |
Pierrefonds—Dollard |
Avalon |
Brossard—Saint-Lambert |
Lac-Saint-Louis |
Niagara Centre |
Courtenay—Alberni |
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine |
Surrey Centre |
North Island—Powell River |
Burnaby South |
Winnipeg South Centre |
Vancouver Centre* |
Nanaimo—Ladysmith |
* - indicates a margin of less than 5 points between 1st and 3rd place
Analysis of 2015 results
Gains and losses by party in marginal seats |- ! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Party in 1st place (2011)!!rowspan="2"|Holds !!rowspan="2"|Gains !! colspan="4"|Party taken from |- !Conservative!!NDP !!Liberal !! Bloc |- | 1 | 3 | | 2 | | 1 |- | 5 | 4 | 4 | | | |- | 13 | 24 | 13 | 10 | | 1 |- | 1 | – | | | | |- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Total | 20 | 31 | 17 | 12 | – | 2 |}
Analysis of 2011 rankings
First- and second-place finishes of such seats were grouped as follows:
Marginal seats: ranked by 1st and 2nd place |- ! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Party in 1st place !! colspan="4"|Party in 2nd place !!rowspan="2"|Total |- !Conservative!!NDP !!Liberal !! Bloc |- | | 6 | 12 | | 18 |- | 12 | | 5 | | 17 |- | 8 | 5 | | | 13 |- | | 3 | | | 3 |- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Total | 20 | 14 | 17 | | 51 |}
Broken down by province:
Marginal seats – analysis by province/territory |- ! colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Party in 1st place !! BC !!MB !! NL !!NS !!ON !!PE !!QC !!SK !!YK !!Total |- | 2 | 3 | 2 | | 9 | | 1 | | 1 | 18 |- | 6 | 1 | | 1 | 3 | | 5 | 1 | | 17 |- | 1 | | | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | | | 13 |- | | | | | | | 3 | | | 3 |- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Total | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 51 |}