List of marginal seats in the Canadian general election, 2015

Based on the transposition of votes from the 2011 election to the new ridings created under the 2012 redistribution, the following seats had a margin of victory of less than 5 percentage points in that election:

Marginal constituencies, based on 2012 redistribution, ranked by 2011 pro forma margin of victory

Constituency

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Winnipeg North

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

Mississauga—Malton

Labrador

Markham—Thornhill

Yukon

Scarborough—Guildwood

Ahuntsic-Cartierville*

Surrey—Newton

Richmond—Arthabaska

Etobicoke Centre

Regina—Lewvan

Lévis—Lotbinière

Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River

Dartmouth—Cole Harbour

Honoré-Mercier

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Don Valley East

Scarborough North

Sydney—Victoria

Elmwood—Transcona

Louis-Saint-Laurent

Willowdale

Don Valley West

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel

London North Centre

Kings—Hants

Don Valley North

Sault Ste. Marie

Scarborough Centre*

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

Waterloo

Scarborough—Rouge Park*

Scarborough Southwest

Toronto Centre

Malpeque

Pierrefonds—Dollard

Avalon

Brossard—Saint-Lambert

Lac-Saint-Louis

Niagara Centre

Courtenay—Alberni

Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Surrey Centre

North Island—Powell River

Burnaby South

Winnipeg South Centre

Vancouver Centre*

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

* - indicates a margin of less than 5 points between 1st and 3rd place

Analysis of 2015 results

Gains and losses by party in marginal seats |- ! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Party in 1st place (2011)!!rowspan="2"|Holds !!rowspan="2"|Gains !! colspan="4"|Party taken from |- !Conservative!!NDP !!Liberal !! Bloc |- | 1 | 3 | | 2 | | 1 |- | 5 | 4 | 4 | | | |- | 13 | 24 | 13 | 10 | | 1 |- | 1 | – | | | | |- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Total | 20 | 31 | 17 | 12 | – | 2 |}

Analysis of 2011 rankings

First- and second-place finishes of such seats were grouped as follows:

Marginal seats: ranked by 1st and 2nd place |- ! rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Party in 1st place !! colspan="4"|Party in 2nd place !!rowspan="2"|Total |- !Conservative!!NDP !!Liberal !! Bloc |- | | 6 | 12 | | 18 |- | 12 | | 5 | | 17 |- | 8 | 5 | | | 13 |- | | 3 | | | 3 |- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Total | 20 | 14 | 17 | | 51 |}

Broken down by province:

Marginal seats – analysis by province/territory |- ! colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Party in 1st place !! BC !!MB !! NL !!NS !!ON !!PE !!QC !!SK !!YK !!Total |- | 2 | 3 | 2 | | 9 | | 1 | | 1 | 18 |- | 6 | 1 | | 1 | 3 | | 5 | 1 | | 17 |- | 1 | | | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | | | 13 |- | | | | | | | 3 | | | 3 |- | colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" | Total | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 51 |}