Exclusive Analysis
Exclusive Analysis is a specialist intelligence company that forecasts political and violent risks, drawing on a privileged global source network to provide objective, actionable, commercially relevant and forward-looking analysis for its clients.
Founded in 2001, Exclusive Analysis was among the first intelligence companies to provide political and violent risk analysis independent of any physical security provision, thereby avoiding any potential conflict of interest. Exclusive Analysis' global source network currently numbers around 1,200 strategically placed individuals. There are around 30 full-time employees based at their global intelligence centre in London, with a further 200 remote analysts based worldwide.
Forecasting
Exclusive Analysis uses its source network and methodology to forecast accurately. The company's excellent forecasting record has been a key driver in the company's growth.
Customised Forecasting
Exclusive Analysis is retained by clients from a broad range of sectors including insurance and reinsurance, financial services, shipping, banking, oil and gas, aviation, mining, cargo and logistics, governments, NGOs and media. Exclusive Analysis works with clients across these sectors to help them maximise commercial opportunities, minimise losses and grow their businesses safely and profitably. Exclusive Analysis also runs the Joint Cargo Committee for the Lloyd’s Market.
Political Risk Forecasting
Exclusive Analysis forecasts a range of political risks, including contract frustration, confiscation expropriation nationalization deprivation (CEND), currency, banking, non-payment and credit risks. Whilst the majority of the company's political risk output is customised to specific client requests, their analysts are frequently referenced on political risk issues, from resource nationalism through to bond default risks. Exclusive Analysis' risk indices and analysis went live on the Bloomberg platform in 2007.
Violent Risk Forecasting
Using the data from Exclusive Analysis' Global Jihad Forecasting dataset, which is a leading private intelligence resource tracking over 1,000 individuals, Exclusive Analysis' CEO Simon Sole was able to correctly forecast a [...] attack in London. He stated in a 2004 interview that the intelligence company considered that a Sunni extremist attack on the UK was likely within the next two years. He stated that the attack was "likely to be relatively low impact - say 30 to 50 deaths, rather than on the scale of the World Trade Center - because the emerging network is inexperienced", 10 months prior to the 7/7 bombings.
Exclusive Analysis has recently modified its view on the likelihood of another 9/11 style attack on the West. Since 2001, the company maintained (against the prevailing view) that a major [...] attack on the West was unlikely due to hostility to foreign jihadis by local tribal leaders, and that "that key organisation and security skills [were] not being transmitted effectively within and between networks". However, owing primarily to a worsening in the intelligence collection environment in the tribal regions of Pakistan, Exclusive Analysis assesses that there is an increased risk of a catastrophic [...] attack over the next few years. This position will be set out in a report to be released in Q2 2009.
Risk Modelling
Exclusive Analysis uses a range of risk modelling tools to inform its forecasting output.
Online Modelling
Exclusive Analysis' Country Risk Evaluation and Assessment Model (CREAM) is a one-of-a-kind, industry-leading online facility. The model is informed by over 250,000 risk-rated and categorised events, and contains well over 5,000 risk briefings and assessments covering every country and every sector. It is accessible to subscribers online.
TerrorRisk
TerrorRisk is a unique location-specific risk mapping tool which enables insurers and risk managers to evaluate [...] risk exposure on a building-by-building basis. TerrorRisk combines Exclusive Analysis' forecasting expertise with Pitney Bowes MapInfo's location intelligence. It was launched in September 2007 and has become a key tool informing the decision-making process of [...] underwriters. It now covers more than 30 cities worldwide.
Foresight
Foresight is a forward-looking annual publication produced by Exclusive Analysis. The latest edition, Foresight 2009 (ISBN 0956136702), contains forecasts on matters ranging from the outlook for foreign energy companies in Nigeria to security outlook in Pakistan and its likely implications for the global jihadi movement. As a publicly available product of a professional intelligence company, Foresight offers an alternative perspective on international affairs, moving away from the 'media-led think' that dominates public discourse on the subject.
External links
References
no:Foresight 2009