Computer specialist shortage crisis

The computer specialist shortage crisis of the present time is an insidious problem, which has been creeping up on the world, in much the same way as global warming. Put briefly, a gradual falling off has been observed in persons choosing information technology and related activities as a career, with a consequent loss of, and increased demand for computer specialists in the West. As discussed below, this phenomenon is world-wide and applies to computer programmers, technicians, information system developers, the Internet and any other career associated with computing and present-day communications technology. At present, the problem is reaching crisis proportions (McDowell, 2006), and may well be threatening the continued existence of the Information Systems, Information Technology and Communications Technology professions in several western countries.

Researchers have been measuring this problem in two principal ways: directly, as the physical shortages reported by organisations; and indirectly, as the fall-off in students registering for such courses at tertiary educational institutions. The former is accompanied by increasing offers of remuneration for unfilled IS posts (Howard and Atkins, 2006 and Occupational outlook quarterly, 2004). An examination of reports from several institutions from around the world show similar trends. In most cases, they differ little from the trend line given by Vegso (2006) at University of California. A generalised trend curve, based on Vegso, is given in the diagram. From these it is evident that registrations in computer-related subjects have followed a ‘cyclical trend’; that is, that since the advent of the microcomputer, two peaks have occurred, one in about 1982 and the other in 2000. A trough occurred in 1990, and we have yet to see whether or not we are in a trough at the present time; it could get lower still.

Of course, some will speculate that the cyclical trend will continue, and that it is just a matter of time before demand for computer-related courses rises and peaks again. Unfortunately, this hypothesis is far from certain. Unlike ‘seasonal trends’, where the seasons definitely do bring about predictable market changes, there is no such guarantee when it comes to cyclical trends (Berenson and Levin, 1986). Seasonal variations are much more predictable. It is obvious that warm clothing will sell better in winter than in summer. The peaks and troughs in a cyclical variation, by contrast, are not approximately equally spaced, and any peak demands one or more critical events. We have only really had two: the advent of the microcomputer at the start of the first upswing and the advent of availability of the Internet at the start of the second. We may well ask what, if any, critical event will start the demand for computer-related courses on another upward trend? No such critical event need occur, in which case, the problem may escalate to the dramatic proportions predicted by McDowell (2006) of the death of the industry. He thinks that the IT profession could disappear altogether in the UK. Other authors discussed below agree that for the US, Europe and Australasia, the same could happen.

Together with the down-swing in demand for computer courses, another trend is observed. Computer-based technology becomes less esoteric and more commonplace. Hence, for instance, microcomputers were initially so costly that normally only organisations could afford them. Today, few first-world homes are without them, and they have literally millions of times the speed and memory compared with the early microcomputers of the late 70s. Similarly, the specialised use of the Internet has become commonplace.

With the emerging shortage of computer specialists, organisations have reacted by promising better salaries and faster advancement schemes (Howard and Atkins, 2006 and Occupational outlook quarterly, 2004). However, this has not significantly altered the down-swing.

Reasons for the problem

McDowell (2006) suggests that the IT industry in the UK is currently suffering from an image problem, which discourages young people from studying IT-related courses at universities and other tertiary education providers. IT is evidently no longer seen to be esoteric enough. Another reason he suggests is that much IT development activity is channeled off-shore to Asian countries. The emerging economies of Asia are able to supply good IT technical services at highly competitive rates.

Central Penn Business Journal (2005) confirms similar trends for the United States and suggests further that the failure of the dot-com businesses in recent times (the so-called dot-com bust) has exacerbated the situation. Western IT is thus only likely to reduce its tarnished image when it becomes competitive for business to channel development back into the country of origin. According to the same reference, several computing programmes at US universities have suffered losses of computer studies students since 2001. Similar trends have been observed in Europe (Training Press Release, 2006) and Australasia (McCallum, 2006).

Ari (1981) suggests that part of the image problem has to do with a mismatch between what computer students get taught and what they in fact are required to do when working: that learning an aspect of IT in sufficient depth to be useful, can only really be done on the job. Hence, why bother to enroll at a tertiary institution? Everyone knows that many students enroll in university computer study programmes in order to follow careers in the computer industry. It is on this ticket that universities happily take on students, but these institutions have a hidden agenda. University education is not firstly or fore mostly vocational training. University education aims at producing a person with a full, holistic education, capable of proceeding to post-graduate study and research. It therefore involves things which prospective students see as unnecessary to their original aim; philosophy, pure mathematics, statistics, research methodologies and so on.

The future

If, as suggested above, the trend in demand for computer specialists and computer-related studies is cyclical, then the industry must hope for some critical event. In the past, this has been a ground-breaking innovation in technology; first the availability of the microcomputer, then the availability of the Internet.

It does not seem that tempting people with better salaries and career opportunities alone has changed or will change this trend; in other words, we are seeking something far beyond the law of demand and supply to rectify the issue.

A problem which may occur if the upswing doesn’t come soon, is the demise of smaller tertiary computer education/training programmes, unable to remain in business owing to a lack of students. This means that competition will be reduced. Monopolies on computer studies may occur as programmes large enough to survive take advantage of the upswing as and when it comes. Monopolies will result in higher fees for students and their bursars, which is hardly conducive to solving the shortage of computer professionals for long.

References:

Ari, 1981, in Hemos, 2006, “Advice For Programmers Right Out of School”, SlashDot, web site: http://developers.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=06/12/11/1247200, accessed 14th December 2006.

Berenson, M.L., and Levine, D.M. Basic business statistics: concepts and applications, (3rd ed.) Prentice Hall, USA, New York, 1986, p. 907.

Central Penn Business Journal, 2005, in Redorbit, web site: http://www.redorbit.com/news/display/?id=129621, accessed 15th December, 2006

Hedquist, U., 2006, “Plummeting ICT enrolments causing concern”, ComputerWorld, web site: http://computerworld.co.nz/news.nsf/PrintDoc/12DEA4B35CC91D01CC2571CE000F7EF0, accessed 14th December, 2006.

Howard, J. and Atkins, C., 2006, “Where have all the students gone? IT Secondary Education in New Zealand”, Proceedings of the 19th NACCQ Conference, Wellington, New Zealand.

McCallum, S., 2006, Computer Science Graduate Shortage, Technical report, Department of Computer Science, University of Otago, web site: http://www.cs.otago.ac.nz/research/publications/oucs-2006-10.pdf, accessed 15th December, 2006.

McDowall, B., 2006, “IT presence in the UK faces extinction as students shun the sector Off-shoring continues to take its toll”, The Register, web site: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/12/12/uk_it_faces_extinction/, accessed14th December, 2006.

Occupational outlook quarterly, 2004, “Occupational Employment”, Occupational outlook quarterly, Winter, 2003-04, Web site: http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2003/winter/art02.pdf, accessed 19th December, 2006.

Training Press Release, 2006, Shortage of 615,000 IT network professionals predicted in Europe by 2008, web site: http://www.trainingpressreleases.com/newsstory.asp?NewsID=1921, accessed 15th December, 2006.

Vegso, J., 2006, “US CS Bachelor’s Degree Production Drops in 2004/2005”, CRA Bulletin, Higher Education Research Institute, University of California, web site: http://www.cra.org/wp/index.php?cat=34, accessed 19th December 2006.