Collapse (sports)

In the context of sports a collapse is where a team with a statistically insurmountable lead in a game, series or season standings puts on such a poor performance in the remainder of the event that they ultimately lose or fail to advance. Typically the term collapse is used in relation to a performance in a season with many games, but it has been less commonly applied to single games or matches. A collapse can be considered a form of choking extended over an extended period of time although sometimes a Collapse can be less the result of failure but bad luck or regression to the mean.

Notable Collapses

Year

Sport

Team/Person

Lead

Peak Probability of Victory

Result

Notes

1908

Baseball

New York Giants

4.5 games ahead with 21 remaining

95.5%

11-10

Caught by Cubs after 14-2 streak

1921

Baseball

Pittsburgh Pirates

7.5 games ahead with 34 remaining

94.6%

14-23

Collapse started after 5 game sweep by Giants

1942

Baseball

Brooklyn Dodgers

9.5 games ahead with 42 remaining

96.9%

25-17

Caught by Cardinals going 38-6

1951

Baseball

Brooklyn Dodgers

12.5 games ahead with 49 remaining

99.7%

25-24

Worst collapse in the pre-divisional play era.

1964

Baseball

Philadelphia Phillies

6.5 games ahead with 15 remaining

96.2%

3-12

poor management of pitching staff

1969

Baseball

Chicago Cubs

8 games ahead with 30 remaining

97.9%

15-25

1978

Baseball

Boston Red Sox

8 games ahead with 48 remaining

96.5%

26-22

Caught by New York Yankees going 35-13

1978

American Football

Washington Redskins

6-0 to start season

2-8

1983

Baseball

Atlanta Braves

6.5 games ahead with 48 remaining

96.4%

19-29

1993

Baseball

San Francisco Giants

9.5 games ahead with 51 remaining

98.3%

29-22

Caught by Braves going 39-11

1995

Baseball

California Angels

9.5 games ahead (12 ahead for Wild Card) with 38 remaining

99.988%

12-26

Statistically worst collapse in history

2002

Baseball

Boston Red Sox

3.5 games ahead (6 ahead for Wild Card) with 105 remaining

95.8%

53-52

2003

Baseball

Seattle Mariners

7.5 games ahead (8 ahead for Wild Card) with 92 remaining

97.9%

45-47

2005

Baseball

Cleveland Indians

1.5 games behind (1 GAME ahead for Wild Card) with 7 remaining

96.5%

1-6

2007

Baseball

New York Mets

7 games ahead (4.5 ahead for Wild Card) with 17 remaining

99.5%

5-12

2009

Baseball

Detroit Tigers

7 games ahead (4 behind for Wild Card) with 26 remaining

96%

11-16

Including one-game tiebreaker with Minnesota Twins

2011

Baseball

Boston Red Sox

9 games ahead for Wild Card with 27 remaining

99.6%

7-20

Eliminated on last game of season on 9th inning, 2 strike, 2 out pitch

2011

Baseball

Atlanta Braves

8.5 game ahead for Wild Card with 18 remaining

99.2%

5-13

See also

  • Choke (sports)