Canada and the 2004 U.S. presidential election

While the entire world paid close attention to the 2004 U.S. presidential election, few countries were doing so more than Canada. Decisions made in the United States affect Canada more than those made in almost any other country. Over eighty percent of Canadian trade is with the United States, and there are close cultural and personal links as well. Moreover, since almost all Canadians have access to and regularly watch American television, they are bombarded with both election coverage and advertisements. CBC reported that MP's also monitored the election through Foreign Affairs, which had established links with the Canadian Embassy in Washington, for up-to-the-minute information on the election.

AbOUT half a million people living in Canada were eligible to vote in the American election. This exceeds the number of eligible voters in several American states. Both parties, but mainly the Democrats, made efforts to win these votes and ensure they do cast ballots. Most notably, John Kerry's sister Diana Kerry visited a number of Canadian cities to bring out the vote.

Canada was overwhelmingly pro-Kerry. A July 2004 poll by Ipsos-Reid found that 60% of Canadians favoured Kerry and only 22% of them George W. Bush. The remainder were either undecided or supporters of third-party candidates. In the winter of 2004 another poll found that only 15% of Canadians felt that Bush was doing a good job as president. Even Canada's most conservative province, Alberta, was 60% in favour of Kerry. The area with the strongest support for Bush were the Atlantic provinces, which only broke 51% for Kerry. Kerry's strongest support was in Quebec where from 69 to 71% of the population picked him over Bush. An international poll of ten nations conducted in September and October again found 60% of Canadians would vote for Kerry with 20% backing Bush. This was third-highest level of support for John Kerry, behind only France and South Korea.

Explanations of Canadian support for John Kerry

This was a product of numerous factors. Since the Second World War, Canada has moved in the direction of Democratic views supporting more social programs, stronger social justice, and a multilateral foreign policy. Canada is largely lacking the base of the Christian Right which provides a significant portion of Bush's support.

Personally, Kerry is also appealing to Canadians. He plays hockey, speaks French, and is a north-easterner with international experience. Bush is an evangelical, Spanish-speaking Southerner, traits that are far less stereotypically Canadian.

Moreover, under George W. Bush, Canadian-American relations had reached their lowest point in decades. Canadian refusals to participate in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, raise military spending, or to follow America's lead on [...] laws and gay marriage all angered the Bush administration. These same factors, especially the Iraq war, also turned much of the Canadian population against Bush. There were a number of trade disputes ongoing between The Two nations, most notably over softwood lumber and cattle. While neither party has an official position on these disputes, the Bush administration was widely seen as being singularly unhelpful. The Bush administration was also clearly more concerned with its relationship with Mexico, and while the leaders of these two states have met frequently, Canada had been comparatively ignored.

Campaign issues directly affecting Canadians

There were few campaign issues that directly affect Canadians. Kerry advocated a programme of buying prescription drugs from Canada. This could make Canadian companies a great deal of money, but it could also lower supply and increase prices in Canada. Kerry has advocated more a protectionist trade stance, something that could have hurt Canada. However, by tradition and due to NAFTA, Canada is rarely affected by such moves.

Canada was mentioned three times in the debates. John Edwards first mentioned Canada towards the end of the Vice-Presidential debate saying that the Bush administration "blocked allowing prescription drugs into this country from Canada. We're going to allow it." In the second town meeting debate between Bush and Kerry, Bush was directly asked about why he was blocking the importation of Canadian drugs. He responded that "I haven't yet. Just want to make sure they're safe. When a [...] comes in from Canada, I want to make sure it cures you and doesn't kill you ... and what my worry is that, you know, it looks like it's from Canada, and it might be from a third world." In the final debate the issue was again drugs from Canada, but in a different context with Bush discussing going to Canada for help to aid with the shortage of flu vaccine in the United States.

Position of the Canadian government and major political parties

The Canadian government had no official position, as is standard protocol. However it is widely believed that the governing Liberals would have preferred a Kerry victory. In August 2004, Carolyn Parrish, a Liberal MP, referred to the United States and its allies as the "Coalition of Idiots." While she was censured for the remarks, this is widely seen as the belief of a portion of the Liberal Party (However, she would later be expelled from the Liberal caucus for her comments). Most cabinet ministers refused to disclose their preferences, but there were some exceptions. Joe Volpe said that "intellectually, I'm attracted to Kerry." Environment Minister Stéphane Dion stated his clear support for Kerry, as did former cabinet minister Denis Coderre.

Perhaps the most important reason the Liberals hoped for a Bush loss is the issue of missile defence. At some point soon after the election, Canada will be forced to take an official position on the issue. The Liberal party is heavily divided on the issue and there exists the possibility that a vote in parliament could be lost. There is thus a hope that if Kerry is elected this fate could be avoided. Conversely, the Conservative Party of Canada, which shares advisers as well as ideology with the Republicans, was pleased by a Republican victory. However, commentators noted that the party's connection to the Republicans could hurt its political prospects by way of Canadians' general dislike for the American party reflecting on themselves. The Liberals are relieved that due to a Bush victory there will be no expectations of Canadian help in Iraq.

Post-election

Only weeks after Bush's reelection he made and official visit to Canada. Bush's first official visit to the country was seen as an effort to mend relations.

In the wake of Bush's reelection a number of Americans looked to Canada as a more liberal alternative and a way to escape the rule of Bush. The New York Times reported that the number of Americans seeking to move to Canada tripled after the election 1. Jokingly a number of people also suggested that the northern blue states should secede and join Canada. The Jesusland map showing this new geography became widely circulated on the Internet.

External links

• Democrats Abroad Canada
• Republicans Abroad Canada
• No contest in Canada: Kerry by a landslide - Globe and Mail (Must pay to see this article)
• Lawrence Martin "Chatty Liberal ministers prefer - drum roll- Kerry" Globe and Mail October 21, 2004.