The Future of Iraq

"Win the war, and also win the peace." -Gen. George Patton
"A new Middle East? The way I'm looking at this new Middle East, I'm seeing what is happening in Gaza, I see what's happening in Lebanon, I'm seeing what's happening in Iraq. This is a new Middle East?" -Jordan's King Abdullah
"You can only protect your liberties in this world by protecting the other man's freedom. You can only be free if I am free." -American lawyer Clarence Darrow

Geography
Iraq is located in the Middle East, surrounded by Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey. Iraq is divided into four main zones: the desert, the uplands, the highlands, and the plains.
The desert zone is south and southwest of the Euphrates River. It is part of the Syrian Desert which covers places in Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. It is stony with sandy stretches, and is sparsely inhabited.
The upland region, commonly called Al Jazirah, is located between the Tigris River and Euphrates Rivers. This extends westward into Syria between the rivers, and into Turkey.The highland region begins south of Mosul and Kirkuk, and extends into the borders of Turkey and Iran.
The high ground and consistent steppes in this region give way to lengthy mountain ranges near the Iranian and Turkish borders. Here too, are the great oil fields near Mosul and Kirkuk. The northeastern highland region is home to most Iraqi Kurds.
The plains begin north of Baghdad and extend into the Persian Gulf. Source “Here the Tigris and Euphrates rivers lie above the level of the plain in many places, and the whole area is a delta interlaced by the channels of the two rivers and by irrigation canals”

The Tigris and Euphrates carry large amounts of salt, and becomes increasingly saltier near the Persian Gulf. Because of this, productivity is limited south of Al Amarah, and is visible in Bahr Al Milh, or the "Sea of Salt". The waters of these rivers are essential to life, but because of the flooding of March, April, and May, the rivers may also threaten life.
Brief History
“Britain’s greatest legacy was, plainly, the creation of Iraq as a legal, geopolitical entity. But Iraq’s borders were defined in the context of broken promises and the British established a cleft country that, even if territorial integrity were to be sustained into the future, would always be challenging to those whose aim was to lead Iraq” . The 1970s proved to be industrial, technological years for Iraq. Literacy rates were high, and they where they were becoming as advanced as most Western countries.
“As a result of subsequent wars and the United Nations trade embargo on Iraq, the situation deteriorated, literacy rates fell dramatically, and society rolled backward”. Following the fallback of society, tribes and religion took over the role modernization had previously had.
:::::Important Events in Iraq’s History
::1921: Britain, the mandate power for Iraq, installs Faisal I as head of state, incorporating the three Ottoman provinces into one nation tot be called the Kingdom of Iraq.
::1941: Iraqi government sides with Italy and Germany in World War II. Royal family flees Baghdad and British troops invade from Basrah in mid-April. Regent restored to throne in June 1941.
::1958: Army officers move against royal family and depose kind on 14 July. Revolutionary government installed. Abed al-Karim Qasim becomes head of state.
::1963: Qasim overthrown. The tiny Ba’ath party emerges as a key conspirator. Constant struggles engulf government.
::1968: Ba’ath party seizes power and Ahmed Hasan al-Bakr emerges as president. Saddam Hussein becomes deputy chairman of the ruling Revolutionary Command Council and the key strongman of the regime.
::1979: Saddam forces al-Bakr to resign and launches a purge of the party.
::1980: Saddam sends forces into Iran, launching a bloody war which lasts for eight years.
::1988: Saddam launches Operation Anfal to attack Kurds in the north. Halabja attacked with chemical weapons.
::1990: Saddam criticizes Kuwait for overproducing oil, forcing the price down. In August, Saddam invades Kuwait.
::1991: Gulf War launched by twenty-eight countries to oust Iraq from Kuwait. Up to 100,000 Iraqis are killed in the war. Iraqi forces expelled from Kuwait. In March, Shia uprising is crushed by Saddam’s cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid, otherwise known as ‘Chemical Ali’.
::1998: Operation Desert Fox launched by the United States and Britain. Baghdad attacked with hundreds of cruise missiles. Saddam remains in power. UNSCOM weapons inspectors leave Iraq.
::2001: World Trade Center in New York attacked. Iraq says it was not involved.
::2002: Referendum on Presidency in Iraq. Saddam receives 100 per cent vote. Release of prisoners from Abu Gharaib prison. In October, President Bush receives special powers from US Congress, seen as green light for war on Iraq.
::2003: US, Britain and a small number of allies launch war against Saddam. War begins on 20 March and lasts until 10 April, when US announces the end of Ba’ath party power in Iraq. In May, the Coalition Provisional Authority instigated as sovereign power of Iraq. In August, the UN building destroyed in suicide attack. Special Envoy Sergio Vieira de Mello killed.
::2005: Elections in January are successful, but less than a third of Sunnis vote. New government pledges to crush insurgency but fails. Attacks reach new level of horror. In October, referendum on new constitution carried, but Sunnis vote against it.
::2006: Shia shrine at Samarra attacked and destroyed. Nationwide sectarian violence follows. Death toll reported by Baghdad Morgue rises to more than 120 per day. Most are being killed by gunshots to the head.
Government
The Economy
Oil is at the basis of the Iraqi economy. When dealing with oil production, Iraq is beat by only Saudi Arabia. After the Iraq-Iran war of the 1980s, Iraq contracted about $200 billion in debt. As the economy plummeted at this time, the educated people of Iraq left. “In the past Iraq had once possessed a cadre of highly educated doctors, engineers and academics. Now they were leaving the country whenever they could. Soon in New Zealand alone there were 30,000 Iraqi immigrants, many of them highly trained. The regime tried to stop professionals resigning from government service. By the mid-1990s a bribe could do almost anything in Iraq” .
Past Leaders
The British began their involvement in Iraq motivated by high ideals. But they miscalculated the economic and political difficulties they would face. In the end, the British withdrew hastily, having constructed weak institutions that were dependent on a minority ruling elite” . Saddam Hussein was vice president in the al-Bakr Ba’athist government from 1968, and he gained complete power in 1979 when he persuaded the president, al-Bakr to step down.
Present Leaders
Before the downfall of Saddam Hussein, the Ba’ath party ruled entirely, but following his downfall as a leader, the United States, and United Kingdom helped set up a new governing system.
The People
Poverty
According to the book The Occupation, by Patrick Cockburn, after the Iraq-Iran war, into the 1990s, poverty was everywhere. The currency became next to useless during the war in Kuwait. “In 1990 one Iraqi dinar was worth $3.20. Five years later a single dollar bought 2,550 dinars. Money changers provide black plastic bags in which to carry the weighty bundles of notes out of their shops” .
Crime
Following the wars with Iran and Kuwait (August 1990-February 1991), the poverty that had taken over Iraq led many people to crime. “Taxi drivers started carrying guns in case they were robbed by their passengers. Bandits ambushed a party of foreign journalists going to Basra under the auspices of the Information Ministry and left them and their minders on the main road stripped to their underpants. The government struck back by amputating the hands of thieves on television as a warning” . This war on international terrorism was conceived as a ‘clearly defined struggle between those favoring American policy against terrorism and those opposing it,’ as defined by the Bush Administration.
The Economy
Iraq was once a flourishing nation, among the rankings of the Western countries. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), "Iraq holds more than 112 billion barrels of oil - the world's second largest proven reserves. Iraq also contains 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and is a focal point for regional and international security issues." Source This oil could easily reboot the economy, and provide more than sufficient funding to reboot the country as a whole.
The Government
As the world continues to change, the Middle Eastern countries are being pulled away from long-time traditions, and introduced to modern ‘political trends’ (Dreams and Shadows p. 381). Change requires sorting out and moving beyond the past. Speaking on democracy in the Middle East, former U.S. Secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said, “Failed and failing states are the problem, and we have to help them heal, and it’s tough. But if we abandon Afghanistan again, we are going to pay for it....We’ve got to complete that job, and we can’t just complete it any old way, we have to have a vision for the Afghanistan people.” She continues by saying, “The great thing about democracy is that if we’re fed up with the people that govern us, we can throw the bums out. But authoritarians can’t do that…. Every dictator, every authoritarian, fears the moment when their people are no longer fearful of them. And because they have no way to express themselves peacefully, people turn to violence…The only legitimate government, the only form of government that is true to the non-negotiable demands of human dignity is democracy. So the United States has to advocate for it.” Source
The people of Iraq, as with any other people, have the potential to create a strong, great nation. With adequate, consistent help, the Iraqi nation can return to the thriving nation it once was.
Withdrawal
"Why are you always reminding us that you opposed the war? Isn't that yesterday's news? Is that experience really relevant?" And what I always say is this -- this isn't just about the past, it's about the future.
- Barack Obama
There are approximately 47,000 troops remaining in Iraq according to the Iraq War Facts and Statistics Source. Referring to wars past, it is easier said than done when it comes to withdrawing troops from a nation. Consider places like Japan, Germany, Korea, etc. There are still military bases found in each of those countries that were developed namely during World Wars I and II. However ideal it sounds to bring each and every one of the U.S. troops home, it has become harder with every day spent in the Middle East. By destroying and attempting to destroy uncivil forms of government, there has been created a people dependent upon a strong military; the United States military.
Barack Obama has said, “We are putting the Iraqis in control of their history and their future. They’ll have responsibility for security and responsibility for providing for the citizens of that country. That is a milestone worth barking.” Source
Despite preferences to withdrawal all at once, the reality is that that is quite impossible. Slowly, the number of troops in Iraq is lessening, but only as they are becoming more dependent upon themselves. Eventually, the complete withdrawal of troops will be a possibility as Iraq is already showing signs of improvement based upon the sprouting government, and the stability therein.
Just as in times of old, however painful, progress does not come all at once. If abandoned at this time, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and those with strong hatred for America, would again take over Iraq.

Main Menu

See Also

Main Menu