Qualification permutations at UEFA Euro 2016

This page lists detailed qualification permutations for the UEFA Euro 2016 football tournament. Scenarios for teams that have not yet completed the of the tournament as well as those for teams that finished third place in their respective groups are listed.
Group winners, runners-up, and advance to the . If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following tie-breaking criteria will be applied:
# Higher number of points obtained in the matches played between the teams in question;
# Superior goal difference resulting from the matches played between the teams in question;
# Higher number of goals scored in the matches played between the teams in question;
# If, after having applied criteria 1 to 3, teams still have an equal ranking (e.g. if criteria 1 to 3 are applied to three teams that were level on points initially and these criteria separate one team from the other two who still have an equal ranking), criteria 1 to 3 are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the teams who are still level to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria 5 to 9 apply;
# Superior goal difference in all group matches;
# Higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
# If only two teams have the same number of points, and they are tied according to criteria 1-6 after having met in the last round of the group stage, their ranking is determined by a penalty shoot-out. (This criterion is not used if more than two teams have the same number of points.);
# Fair play conduct (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card);
# Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system.
The four best third-placed teams are determined according to the following criteria:<ref name="Euro2016 Regulations"/>
# Higher number of points obtained;
# Superior goal difference;
# Higher number of goals scored;
# Fair play conduct;
# Position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system.
For groups finishing later, the exact criteria necessary for qualification as a third place team will become more clear as earlier groups finish playing.
Group C
Germany
Germany will be assured of qualification unless both of the following scenarios occur:
*Germany loses by three or more goals to Northern Ireland, or;
*Germany loses by two goals to Northern Ireland and does not score at least two goals against Northern Ireland, or;
*Germany loses 3-1 to Northern Ireland and accumulates enough yellow and/or red cards to incur five or more disciplinary points in the manner described above;
and:
*Poland does not lose to Ukraine or Poland loses to Ukraine but:
**Germany loses to Northern Ireland by a margin of defeat of at least two goals more than Poland's margin of defeat to Ukraine, or;
**Germany loses to Northern Ireland by a margin of defeat of exactly one goal more than Poland's margin of defeat to Ukraine, and:
***Poland scores at least two goals more than Germany, or;
***Poland scores one more goal than Germany and Germany incurs at least three more disciplinary points than Poland.
Even if both of the aforementioned scenarios occur, Germany may still qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Poland
Poland will be assured of qualification unless both of the following scenarios occur:
*Poland loses by two or more goals to Ukraine, or;
*Poland loses by one goal to Ukraine and does not score at least three goals against Ukraine, or;
*Poland loses 3-2 to Ukraine and accumulates at least three yellow cards and/or one red card;
and:
*Northern Ireland defeats Germany, and:
**Poland loses to Ukraine by a margin of defeat no less than Germany's margin of defeat to Northern Ireland, or;
**Poland loses to Northern Ireland by a margin of defeat of exactly one goal less than Germany's margin of defeat to Northern Ireland, and;
***Poland does not score at least two goals more than Germany, or;
***Poland scores one more goal than Germany and Germany does not incur at least three more disciplinary points than Poland.
Even if both of the aforementioned scenarios occur, Poland may still qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland will be assured of qualification if they defeat Germany. If they draw with or lose to Germany, Northern Ireland will finish third and may still qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Ukraine
Ukraine cannot qualify.
Group D
Spain
Spain have qualified.
Croatia
Croatia will be assured of qualification unless they lose to Spain and Czech Republic defeats Turkey and:
*At least one of the final two Group D matches results in a margin of victory of at least two goals, or;
*Both matches result in a margin of victory of one goal and:
**Czech Republic scores at least two goals more than Croatia, or;
**Czech Republic scores exactly one more goal than Croatia and accumulates no greater than one more disciplinary point than Croatia.
Even if the above scenario occurs, Croatia may still qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic will be assured of qualification if they defeat Turkey and Spain defeats Croatia and:
*At least one of the final Group D matches results in a margin of victory of at least two goals, or;
*Both matches result in a margin of victory of one goal and:
**Czech Republic scores at least two goals more than Croatia, or;
**Czech Republic scores exactly one more goal than Croatia and accumulates no greater than one more disciplinary point than Croatia.
Czech Republic will be eliminated if they lose to Turkey. If they do not lose to Turkey and finish third, Czech Republic may still qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Turkey
Turkey will be eliminated unless they defeat Czech Republic. Even if they defeat Czech Republic, Turkey can finish no higher than third and are not guaranteed qualification as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Group E
Italy
Italy have qualified as group winners.
Belgium
Belgium will be assured of qualification if they do not lose to Sweden.
Belgium will be eliminated if they lose to Sweden and Republic of Ireland defeats Italy.
Sweden
Sweden will be assured of qualification if they defeat Belguim unless Republic of Ireland defeats Italy and:
*Republic of Ireland's margin of victory is at least three goals more than Sweden's, or;
*Republic of Ireland's margin of victory is two goals more than Sweden's and Republic of Ireland scores more goals than Sweden, or;
*Republic of Ireland's margin of victory is two goals more than Sweden's and Republic of Ireland scores the same number of goals as Sweden and Sweden accumulates greater than one more disciplinary point than Republic of Ireland.
Sweden will be eliminated if:
*Sweden loses to Belgium, or;
*Sweden draw with Belgium and Republic of Ireland defeats Italy.
Republic of Ireland
Republic of Ireland will be assured of qualification if they defeat Italy and Sweden defeats Belgium and:
*Republic of Ireland's margin of victory is at least three goals more than Sweden's, or;
*Republic of Ireland's margin of victory is two goals more than Sweden's and Republic of Ireland scores more goals than Sweden, or;
*Republic of Ireland's margin of victory is two goals more than Sweden's and Republic of Ireland scores the same number of goals as Sweden and Sweden accumulates greater than one more disciplinary point than Republic of Ireland.
Republic of Ireland will be eliminated if:
*Republic of Ireland loses to Italy, or;
*Republic of Ireland draws with Italy and Belgium does not defeat Sweden.
Group F
Hungary
Hungary will be assured of qualification unless they lose to Portugal and Iceland defeats Austria.
Iceland
Iceland will be assured of qualification if they defeat Austria.
Iceland will be eliminated if they lose to Austria and Portugal does not lose by at least the same margin of defeat to Hungary.
Portugal
Portugal will be assured of qualification if they defeat Hungary.
Portugal will be eliminated if they lose by two or more goals to Hungary.
Austria
Austria will will be assured of qualification if they defeat Iceland and Portugal does not defeat Hungary.
Austria will be eliminated if they do not defeat Iceland.
Ranking of third-placed teams
Slovakia
Slovakia will qualify for the knockout phase if any of the following four scenarios occur:
*In Group C:
**Germany defeats Northern Ireland, or;
**Poland finishes in third place and:
***Poland loses to Ukraine by at least two goals, or
***Poland loses to Ukraine by one goal and scores no more than two goals, or
***Poland loses 3-2 to Ukraine and accumulates at least three yellow cards and/or one red card.
**Germany finishes in third place and:
***Germany loses by three or more goals to Northern Ireland, or;
***Germany loses by two goals to Northern Ireland and does not score at least two goals against Northern Ireland, or;
***Germany loses 3-1 to Northern Ireland and accumulates enough yellow and/or red cards to incur five or more disciplinary points in the manner described above.
*In Group D:
**Czech Republic does not defeat Turkey, or;
**Czech Republic defeats Turkey by a score of 1-0 and accumulates enough yellow and/or red cards to incur six or more disciplinary points in the manner described above.
*In Group E:
**Republic of Ireland does not defeat Italy by at least three goals or;
**Sweden does not defeat Belgium, or;
**Sweden defeats Belgium 1-0 or;
**Sweden defeats Belgium 2-1 and accumulates enough yellow and/or red cards to incur six or more disciplinary points in the manner described above.

*In Group F:
**Austria draws with Iceland, and/or;
**Portugal does not defeat Hungary, and/or;
**Austria defeats Iceland and Portugal defeats Hungary and:
***Austria defeats Iceland by one goal, or,
***Austria scores less than three goals, or;
***Austria defeats Iceland 3-1 and accumulates at least three yellow cards and/or one red card.
**Iceland defeats Austria and Portugal defeats Hungary and:
***Portugal defeats Hungary by at least three goals, or;
***Hungary loses 2-0 to Portugal and accumulates at least three yellow cards and/or one red card.
Albania
For Albania to qualify for the knockout phase, at least two of the following four scenarios must occur:
*In Group C:
**Germany defeats Northern Ireland by at least four goals.
*In Group D:
**Czech Republic draws with Turkey or Turkey defeats Czech Republic by one goal.
*In Group E:
**Republic of Ireland does not defeat Italy, and:
***Sweden does not defeat Belgium or Sweden defeats Belgium by four goals or more.
*In Group F:
**Hungary defeats Portugal and Austria does not defeat Iceland.

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