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Potential military conflict between the United States and China
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Over the past fifty years, many people have felt there was a significant possibility of military conflict between the United States and China. Two causes of such a conflict have been examined in detail: the Vietnam War in the 1960s, and following the end of the Cold War.
However the Korean War of 1950-53 came the closest to open war between the PRC and the US, as the PRC feared an invasion of its territory.
Vietnam War
During the Vietnam War, Chinese leaders led by Mao Zedong regarded the United States' manoeuvres in Vietnam as the prelude to a "large, possibly nuclear" war. Throughout the 1960s, the navy and air force clashed with U.S. planes that entered China's air space. On 5 August 1964, after U.S. bombers attacked six naval bases in North Vietnam, Zhou Enlai and Luo Ruiqing contacted North Vietnamese President Ho Chi Minh, Premier Pham Van Dong, and Chief of Staff Van Tien Dung and proposed military collaboration between the two countries to counter the U.S. threat. That evening, the PLA convened an emergency war meeting with the principal commanders of the Air Force, Navy, and the Beijing Military Region in attendance. They concluded that although the bombing did not signify an immediate war in North Vietnam, the threat had increased and recommended that troops in Guangzhou and Kunming be put on alert. In a survey conducted in 1965 and published on August 24 that year, the Asahi Shimbun found that more than half of the Japanese population (57%) feared that the Vietnam War would escalate into a Sino-American War.
Recent speculation
More recently, many sources have speculated that a war between China and the United States might be sparked off by Taiwan's declaring independence, and that Japan would probably be adversely affected by the war as well:
The possibility that nuclear weapons could be used in such a war has been a reason why the United States opposes the lifting of the European Union's .
According to Professor Chang-yeon Kim of Stanford University, in such a scenario, there would be a 15% chance China would win, 23% chance the United States would win and 62% chance there would be mutually assured destruction.
In Thinking about China and War
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Record lists the following works offering a "more benign view" of China:
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