Peaknik

A peaknik (a.k.a. peak oil theorist, peakist) is a person who studies or has an interest in the peak oil or the Hubbert peak theory of oil depletion proposed by M. King Hubbert and is concerned for the possible long term effects on society. Peakniks are also involved in promoting public awareness of peak oil.

Peaknik is a variation of the term peacenik, which is derived from beatnik. In these three cases, the use of "-nik" evokes a counterculture attitude to the status quo, though this meaning is not always conveyed by the suffix.

Many peakniks meet to discuss peak oil and awareness raising. A Worldwide Directory of local peaknik groups is being catalogued at Sydney Peak Oil.

Peakniks question the view held by some cornucopians that the market will solve the peak oil problem by itself, as the market may not adequately discount the future cost of an unanticipated decline in petroleum production. That is, by the time the market responds to a developing global shortage of oil, economies may lack the necessary time to adjust.

Peakniks stress that liquid petroleum is a finite resource, and some argue that Hubbert peak theory posits that production will not increase above some finite maximum rate, no matter how much demand increases. Hubbert peak theory predicts that the world production rate of conventional oil will reach a peak, most likely without warning, and then production will irreversibly decline in the years following the peak, perhaps too fast for industrial economies to adjust. Peakniks also argue that alternative energy cannot simply be plugged in, since these alternatives lack the fungibility, portability, and energy density of liquid hydrocarbon fuels. For example, transportation in the United States depends on petroleum for about 97% of its energy, and replacing the existing vehicle fleet to run on a different energy source (e.g., electricity or hydrogen) would require decades. The petrochemical industry and industrial agriculture also depend critically on petroleum, and would be similarly hard-pressed to find suitable substitutes if world oil production were to peak unexpectedly and then decline quickly after the peak. Adjusting may be all the harder once the oil production decline is underway, as high petroleum prices may shrink economic output and reduce the availability of capital for replacing the petroleum infrastructure.

Peakniks contend that because transportation, food, and petrochemicals are so critical to modern economies, and because these sectors depend so heavily on petroleum, the peaking of world oil production combined with the general lack of preparation for it may pose a stiff challenge both to the cornucopian view of economics and to the modern way of life.

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