Guns and crime

The relationship between guns and crime is a controversial measure for the appropriate degree of firearm regulation in some countries, such as the United States. One major aspect of the argument involves potential positive or negative correlations that many argue exist between crime, especially violent crime, and gun ownership. Both sides actively debate the relevance of gun laws and self-defense in modern society. Correlations are, of course, hard to establish, because countries with different gun laws are never the same in all other aspects.

United Kingdom vs Switzerland
A European example would be to compare the violent crime levels of the United Kingdom, which has very strict rules against gun ownership, with Switzerland, which has fully automatic assault rifles in 14% of homes. According to the British Home Office, Switzerland had a homicide rate per 100,000 of 1.2 average over the years 1999-2001, which is less than England & Wales at 1.61, although Scotland is higher at 2.16, while Northern Ireland - with its historically exceptional conditions - is at 2.65. The latter compares with the Republic of Ireland (with similar gun control laws to the UK) at 1.42.

These data indicate a negative correlation between gun ownership and crime. However, simple correlative evidence concerning two examples is inconclusive as to causation. Put another way, these data do not conclusively indicate that the higher gun ownership rate in Switzerland is a cause of that country's lower homicide rate, although that conclusion is frequently drawn. In addition, the prevalence of firearms in Switzerland is a direct result of its rigidly-controlled citizen army comprising most of the adult male population, who keep their service weapons at home, and so can be viewed as an exceptional case not directly comparable to other countries, even those with a high level of private firearms ownership.

Australia vs USA
Australia has always had tougher gun laws than the USA, despite its own frontier history and its cultural similarities to the United States. In 2003-04 (financial year) in Australia, 53 out of 305 homicides involved the use of firearms (17%) , while in the United States the number for 2004 was 10,654 out of a total of 16,138 homicides (66%) . It is useful to note that, excluding murders by firearm, that the USA still has a much higher rate than Australia (252 from 20 million versus 5,484 out of 278 million, equating to approximately double the rate of Australia).

Brady Bill correlation with crime in the US
The 1993 US Brady Bill is an example of a gun control law that some believe correlates with a decrease in overall crime levels. Critics of the Brady Bill argue that the reduction was driven more by improving economic and other factors than by the gun control regulations, and further point out that during this same period, many states began issuing concealed carry licenses (48 states as of 2007), resulting in increasing numbers of lawfully armed citizens. Furthermore the drop in gun crime started in 1993, one year before the Brady Bill took effect. Because the Brady Bill was a national law, some claim that the measurement of its results must be treated as a single sample. That is, it should be considered to have no more nor less weight than the findings after a change in the laws of a single state or municipality.

Federal Assault Weapons Ban correlation with crime in the US
The 1994 federal Assault Weapons Ban, which recently sunset, led to no obvious change in firearms crime rates during its ten year run, and no statistics are currently available to show if the removal of this ban has had any effect.

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