Future Korean War

A future Korean War is the hypothetical scenario of a future armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula between North Korea and South Korea. South Korea would possibly be supported by the United States.
Background
Since the Korean Armistice Agreement ended the Korean War in 1953, Korea has been divided into two nation-states without a formal peace treaty. Multiple clashes between the two nations have occurred since then, not least the .
Several diplomatic initiatives, most notably the six-party talks, have been undertaken to relax tensions, to prevent war, and to preclude North Korean use of weapons of mass destruction or the development thereof.
Threats of war
Prediction
As the threat of conflict has been imminent during many periods of the 60-year armistice, Korean war scenarios have been thoroughly researched by military and political experts, and simulated by institutions such as the U. S. Army War College.
Paul Wachter describes how North Korea would begin massing its troops under the guise of a military exercise. The invasion would begin with a massive artillery barrage that could "flatten" the South Korean capital Seoul. In a counter-attack, the South Korean military would be supported by the United States, and a prolonged conflict would lead to the destruction of the North Korean regime. He also claims that Korean reunification past a defeat of North Korea would be difficult.
Christopher Hitchens has described how bad a new Korean War and its aftermath would be, so that our leaders are "conditioned by the awareness that no North Korean provocation, however egregious, can be confronted, lest it furnish the occasion or pretext for something truly barbarous and insane". As a result, the North Korean oppression continues.
A paper from the Air University of the US Airforce cites several reasons why China would not side with North Korea, as they did in the Korean War: today's China has no agenda to promote their political ideology, and economic progress would be harmed from a prolonged war.
Risk analysis consulting firm Country Risk Solutions has provided four possible scenarios: They all predict South Korea to survive as a nation, and China to remain neutral.
OPLAN 5027 is an operational plan by the United States and South Korea, revised several times since the 1970s. OPLAN 5029 is a plan for reactions to critical situations in the North Korea.
In 2013, the Korean Crisis began and it is still ongoing as North Korea carried out a third nuclear test after the U.S and South Korea engaged in a military exercise near the DMZ, provoking further reactions. Again, North Korea responded that they would carry out another nuclear test if the U.S and South Korea continued with supporting the UN sanctions on the country.
Fiction
Several works of speculative fiction have depicted a future Korean War, with video games such as Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory, Homefront, and the Larry Bond novel Red Phoenix.
 
< Prev   Next >