Economic Forecast 08-09

This article aggregates current and forecast values (for year 2009) of a few vital economic indicators for the US economy. The source of this data are various government or educations organizations and independent economists.
Introduction and Intended Audience
The primary targeted audience of this article is the layman, not an economist. Hence, for the sake of simplicity, this article will seek to avoid economic jargon. The goal is to present a clear picture of the current state of the economy based on reliable data about the following vital economic indicators: Rate of Unemployment, Housing, Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Gross Domestic Product, Bankruptcies, Money Supply, Stock Market Prices. This will not present any new conclusions about the economy or any recommendations on how to deal with this situation. Readers are advised to reach their own conclusions.
Data Validity and Expiry
Economic data is by nature, time sensitive. Most data in this article speaks of current economic situation (December 2008) and of forecasts through end of 2009. There is little availability of data for forecast beyond 2009. Indeed, such longer term forecasts can also be unreliable. All data in this article will be clearly qualified with its time-context. Instead of using relative statements like "The current unemployment rate is at 6.7%", a more accurate version is "The unemployment rate in November 2008 is 6.7%".
Data Sources and Gathering Methodology
The data aggregation presented in this article is being done by non-economists. The source of this data is primarily online news articles. While we will try to provide true information, we do not have access to the original reports on which these news articles are based. Even if we did, we are not economists and are not qualified enough to discuss the quality of data or to critique the conclusions and opinions expressed in these news articles. Despite this handicap, we will present information from news articles which we believe are independent of any noticeable bias or spin. Our observation has been that if two or more "reliable" entities independently arrive at a similar conclusion, there is likely to be an element of truth to that conclusion. To this end, we will present information published by government agencies, universities, and renowned economists. We will try to avoid information from reports which were paid for by businesses.
Rate of Unemployment
The basic source of labor market information is the Bureau of Labor Statistics which publishes its data every month. To remove bias of seasonal employment changes, it is most useful to compare the unemployment rate of any given month with that of the same month from the previous year.
* The unemployment rate for November 2008 in the USA was 6.7%. This is the highest unemployment rate in the previous 15 years.
* The U.S Energy Information Administration expects the unemployment rate to increase to 7.9% in 2009.
* Economist David Shulman at the UCLA Anderson School of Management expects the unemployment rate to increase to 8.5% in 2009
Housing Starts
Investopedia explains housing starts as follows:

The New Residential Construction Report, known as "housing starts" on Wall Street, is a monthly report issued by the U.S. Census Bureau jointly with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The data is derived from surveys of homebuilders nationwide, and three metrics are provided: housing starts, building permits and housing completions. A housing start is defined as beginning the foundation of the home itself. Building permits are counted as of when they are granted.

* Economist David Shulman at the UCLA Anderson School of Management predicts housing starts will drop below a 700,000 unit annual rate (in 2008? or 2009?), the lowest in the postwar history
Consumer Price Index
TBD
Retail Sales
TBD
Industrial Production
* According to a report published by the federal reserve, Industrial production decreased 0.6 percent in November 2008 with declines widespread across industries. Moreover, At 106.1 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production in November 2008 was 5.5 percent below its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell to 75.4 percent, a level 5.6 percentage points below its average level from 1972 to 2007.
Bankruptcies
TBD
Gross Domestic Product
GDP is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced within the country in a given period of time (usually a calendar year). It is also considered the sum of a value added at every stage of production (the intermediate stages) of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, and it is given a money value. In the USA, GDP numbers are published each quarter by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
* GDP declined at a 0.5% rate in the third quarter of 2008.
* Economist David Shulman at the UCLA Anderson School of Management predicts that the nation's GDP will decline at a 4.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2008, and it will continue to sink in 2009 by a rate of 3.4% in the first quarter and 0.8% in the second quarter of 2009. .
Stock Market Prices
TBD
Money Supply
TBD

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