The Great Bust Ahead is a somewhat controversial book by Dan Arnold predicting an inevitable, massive economic depression in the United States and United Kingdom beginning in the years 2011-2012. It is available only on Amazon.com, where it remains a best-seller. Unlike most books of the "Gloom and Doom" genre, this one's prediction is solely based on demographics (similar to Harry Dent's work), and the author is not an economist. Written in 2002, it notes a strong correlation (with a few exceptions) since 1920 between the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrial Average and the number of 45- to 54-year-olds in the country. Both trends are predicted to increase until 2011-2012 and subsequently crash hard, leading to a depression that is seven times worse than the Great Depression in the 1930s that lasts for roughly 13 years. It may even begin earlier as well according to Arnold. The latest prediction as of January 2009 is that the current recession/financial crisis has nothing to do with the demographically induced depression to come but is merely a warm-up to what is to come.
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