Raila Doctrine

The Raila Doctrine simply states ...a presidential election can never be declared to have been free and/or fair if Raila is not declared winner of said election..."
The term was coined by lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC in a petition into the 2013 Kenyan Presidential Election at the Supreme Court of Kenya.
Background
Raila Odinga, former prime minister of Kenya, has contested five times for presidency of Kenya and withdrawn once in the 2017 October polls. Odinga and his National Super Alliance (NASA) had pledged not to take part in the vote re-run unless reforms were made to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). In 1997 Raila Odinga garnered 667,886 representing approximately 10.80% of the total votes cast in an election that was won by Daniel arap Moi who was vying as the incumbent. In the 2002 Kenyan general election, Raila Odinga dropped his presidential ambition in favor of Mwai Kibaki after his now famous proclamation Kibaki Tosha. After the election victory, Raila was to fall out with Mwai Kibaki after acrimoniously accusing Mwai Kibaki of failing to honor a pre-election MOU that they had allegedly signed. In 2007, Raila Odinga was poised to be the Kenya's fourth president after riding a "popularity wave". However, matters took a different turn when in the final minutes of tallying, votes started streaming in showing that Mwai Kibaki was actually winning the election. The ECK made a formal declaration, that Mwai Mibaki was the winner. This triggered widespread violence throughout Kenya and over 1200 people were killed, after Raila Odinga called for Mass action.
Raila Odinga called for peace, having accepted what is now referred to as "the half loaf of bread offer" from Kibaki, to be appointed the Prime Minister of Kenya.
In 2008, Raila Odinga was instrumental to in bringing the Kriegler Commission to investigate the post election violence. Following the Kriegler Report the ECK was disbanded and sweeping changes were implemented which included the Constitution of Kenya and the IEBC
In the 2013 General Elections, the IEBC declared that Raila Odinga had lost to Uhuru Kenyatta. Raila Odinga refused to accept defeat. In a press conference shortly after the results were announced noted that the election had been marred by massive failures by the BVR kits, EVID (electronic voter identification or "Pollbooks"), RTS (results transmission system or "tallying system") and the RPS (results presentation or "transmissions system"). He claimed that the manual tallying was suspect leaving him no choice but to The Kenya contest the result in Kenya's highest court, The Supreme Court. Mindful of bringing the challenge, Raila Odinga and his lawyers George Oraro, Mutula Kilonzo, and James Orengo, secretly instructed Raj Pal Senna, a Management Consultant from Barcelona to carry out a forensic investigation of the technology used in the Kenyan General Election 2013, during which the IEBC made claims on TV and media that there were "technological challenges", that "servers overloaded" and that "database crashed". Raj Pal Senna included in this work a forensic examination of the evidence of IEBC and Uhuru Kenyatta in relation to the technology deployed during the Kenyan Presidential Elections. Raila Odinga and his lawyers then took appropriate legal steps to verify the findings of Raj Pal Senna by consulting authorities in the USA and the UK. The findings of the Raj Pal Senna were then documented in his witness statement for Raila Odinga, and became known as "Witness Statement RO6"
The Supreme Court subsequently dismissed The Kenya Presidential Election Petition 2013 on 30 March 2013, and Chief Justice Willy Mutunga directed a criminal investigation of the IEBC.
In the 2017 elections, Raila Odinga again vied for the presidential position, prior to the elections, he alleged that the ruling coalition was working with IEBC to rig him out 'again'. The opposition made sure that a lot of changes had been made in the IEBC. In 11 August 2017, IEBC declared the incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta as the winner of the 8 August 2017 Elections
Nasa coalition, led by Raila Odinga filed an election petition at the Supreme Court on 18 August 2017. The Supreme Court headed by chief justice David Maraga ruled with a 4-2 majority decision in favor of Raila Odinga, citing massive illegalities and irregularities committed by the IEBC.
In the 2022 Kenyan presidential election, Raila Odinga's candidacy was endorsed by the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta. Senior government officials including Cabinet Secretaries, Principal Secretaries and national government machinery were seen to publicly campaign for a Raila presidency. Dr Oburu Oginga, brother to Raila Odinga stated that the Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate had the "system" while implying unfriendly regimes had previously colluded to rig out Raila Odinga. Despite government backing of a Raila candidacy, on the 16th of August 2022, William Ruto was declared winner and President-elect by the IEBC. On 17th August, Raila Odinga rejected the results of the election citing vote rigging and declaring the final results as "null and void". Despite the allegations of rigging, the Elections Observation Group (Elog) an election observer group supported the final election results.
Other variations
"Raila Doctrine" can also be used to encourage African opposition leaders across Africa to contest all flawed elections. These leaders should use all the available legally acceptable channels and courts to stop electoral manipulation by the incumbents. Examples include Kizza Besigye, Ugandan physician, politician and former military officer. Kizza Besigye was a contestant in Uganda's 2001, 2006 and 2011 presidential elections, but lost in all of them to the incumbent Yoweri Museveni. Another example is Morgan Tsvangirai who is the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change - Tsvangirai (MDC-T). Morgan contested in 2002, 2008 and 2013 lost in all occasions, claimed foul play and never conceded defeat.

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