Presimetrics

Authors: Mike Kimel and Michael Kanell
Presimetrics Workman Publishing Company came about to answer a simple question: how well did past American Presidents perform on wide range of policy issues? To answer this question, Presimetrics looked at a wide range of issues, things like
abortions using data from the Centers for Disease Control, economic growth, healthcare, and job creation. The analysis is performed performed by computing the rate of change in each issue over the length of each administration mainly on the Presidents from Dwight Eisenhower (1953) to GW George W. Bush (2008), (e.g., by how much did the murder rate change while each President was in office? what about the national debt?, etc.). Administrations are then ranked based on their performance on every issue.
The authors find many surprises. For instance, presidents who have reputations as small government advocates often were those most responsible for expanding the size and scope of the federal government. Conversely, some presidents who are considered spendthrifts actually did a good job at keeping government spending in check or paid down the debt.
Another interesting factor of the book is that on many issues, Presidents who did well tended to have similar policies to other Presidents that did well, while Presidents who did poorly often followed the same policies as other Presidents who did poorly. This makes it more likely that policies make a big difference in political outcomes.
Perhaps the most controversial finding in the book is that lower tax burdens have not led to faster economic growth or increased job creation. In fact, Presidents who did best at economic issues were also the ones that increased tax burdens.
Written by Mike Kimel and Michael Kanell, a business reporter for the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Parade Magazine created a quiz based on Presimetrics which appears in their August 8, 2010 issue. The authors also have a blog which provides additional analysis beyond that which appears in the book.

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