Olduvai theory

The Olduvai theory is a 1989 theory postulated by engineer Richard C. Duncan, which states that industrial civilization (as defined by per capita energy production) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years. The theory claims to provide a quantitative basis for a so-called "transient-pulse theory" of modern civilization; Vaclav Smil has called it "apocalyptic". Richard Duncan frequently publishes articles in support of his theory on Social Contract Press, a white nationalist publisher based in Petoskey, Michigan.
History
The Olduvai theory was introduced in 1989 by power system engineer Richard C. Duncan as the "transient-pulse theory of industrial civilization" with further details in the 1993 paper "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium".
In June, 1996, Duncan introduced a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age" where the term "Olduvai Theory" replaced "transient-pulse theory" used in previous papers. Duncan further updated his theory in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposium of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. In 2005, Duncan extended his data set to include up to 2003 in "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization".
Details of theory
Industrial civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time between energy production per capita rising above 37% of its eventual peak value, and it falling back below 37% of the peak value later. In 1996, he estimated this period to be from 1930 until approximately 2025, with the per capita peak having occurred in 1977. This increase directly contradicts Postulate 2 of the most recent version of the theory, namely that " will show no growth from 1979 to circa 2008". The response is that certain non-OPEC countries such as China and India have increased their per capita energy usage whilst efficiency improvements within the USA & OPEC have reduced their requirements for energy without impacting the quality of life. The theory is then re-assessed from the standpoint OPEC, non-OPEC and USA energy consumption.
Proponents note that the current trend of increasing per capita energy consumption may be difficult to sustain in the face of limits on fossil fuel resources such as oil, coal, and natural gas. However, advances in renewable energy have reduced dependence on fossil fuels. For example, in 2015 Sweden produced approximately 8,153 kWh of electricity per capita per year (5.01 boe/c/yr) from renewable resources, with the exclusion of hydropower; Sweden's theoretical maximum electric generation capacity from renewable resources, including hydropower, is estimated to be 24,472 kWh per capita per year (15.03 boe/c/yr) at the current population level.
Quote
In justification of his reference to Olduvai Gorge, Duncan writes:
…(1) it is famous for the myriad hominid fossils and stone tools discovered there, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.

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