Human vulnerability to climate change in the Caribbean

Human vulnerability can be defined as the exposure to hazard by external activity
(e.g. the climatic change) together with the coping capacity of the people to reduce the risk from
the exposure. People in the Caribbean are vulnerable to climate change due to variable rainfall, and the intensity and frequency of storms in the region. Structural weakness worsen vulnerabilities due to: relative isolation, small land masses, concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal areas, limited economic base and dependency on natural resources, combined with limited financial, technical and institutional capacity for adaptation. These factors make sea level rise a particular concern for Caribbean islanders.
Though 98% of the islands are uninhabited and inhabited island elevations can range from sea level to 10,000 feet, the rocky, mountainous inland terrain means 70% of people must live along the coast. Of that amount, more than half live with 1.5 kilometers of the coast.
Geography
The Caribbean Sea covers an area of approximately 2,754,000 km2 (1,063,000 square miles). Major islands have a population of 40 million people. This body of water touches the boundary nations of Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, United States, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Venezuela. These countries have a combined population of 116 million. The Caribbean Community, CARICOM, promotes the economic integration and cooperation of 15 member countries. Overseas territories include France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.
There are over 7,000 islands in the Caribbean. Cuba is the largest at 110,860 with a population of over 11 million (2013). Its lowest point is at sea level. One of the smallest inhabited islands, Isla Mujeres, off Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, is a little over 1,000 square meters with a population (2011) of 14,012. It sits one meter from sea level.
To assess human vulnerability in the Caribbean due to climate change, a case study from the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) was used. It was conducted from 2009 to 2011 in 15 Caribbean countries. Funding was provided by the UK Department for International Development (DFID/UKaid) and the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). Though this only provides a snapshot of the country Belize, it represents vulnerabilities that other countries may experience.
Three coastal areas of Belize are highlighted as part of the primary study:
*Placencia - focus on human vulnerabilities
*Ambergris Caye - sea level rise/storm surge
*Rocky Point - sea level rise/storm surge
Role of tourism
The Caribbean is more dependent on tourism to sustain livelihoods than any other region of the world. In 2011, 13% of Caribbean employment was derived from tourism, 14% of the regional gross domestic product was from tourism and $46.8 billion is generated from travel and tourism. Of the 30.6 million Americans that travel, one-third go to the Caribbean.The attraction for tourists to visit the Caribbean is its pristine beaches, fresh fish, and variety of plant and animal species. However, improperly managed development of tourism can put pressure on natural ecosystems on some islands, particularly in the alteration of local landscapes with non-native vegetation, golf courses, roads, and tourist infrastructure and facilities. On the other hand, some tourism has assisted in conservation efforts.
Climate Change Vulnerabilities
Vulnerability to climate change in the Belize is based on seven impacts in the CCCRA study. Human vulnerability, along with adaptation strategies, are examined within each section:
Agriculture and Food Security
Climate change impacts agriculture in Belize through flooding, drought, and depletion of food stocks following natural disasters. Yields for staples such as corn, beans, and rice are projected to drop 10% - 20% due to temperature increases of 1°C and 2°C and a ± 20% change in precipitation. Historically, there has been a reliance on rainwater versus irrigation for agriculture. Climate change will prompt strategies and additional funding for agriculture water demand. Reduced yields mean less income from food exports, as well as, less food for local communities. High levels of poverty amongst subsistence and small-scale farmers also put them at risk. In August 2010, Belize updated its policy for food sovereignty to include education, diversified food marketing, processing, storage, credit and nutrition programs for children and the elderly.
Water Quality and Availability
Drinking water is accessible to 100% of the population in Belize; although, only 75% of rural communities have household water connections and 87% of city dwellers had indoor connections. Water quality is generally good, but the infrastructure is old, underfunded and badly coordinated through overlapping government agencies. Water quality, especially during droughts, can be inconsistent. Saltwater intrusion is also an issue. Another concern is the imbalance of water resource in terms of location. For example, there is a ready supply of water in the south of Belize where the population is low. Conversely, there is a high population in the north where water supplies are low. More funding for infrastructure and better cooperation between water agencies will be a needed part of any adaption program.
Energy Supply and Distribution
An increase in the intensity (and possibly frequency) of severe low-pressure systems, such as hurricanes, has the potential to affect both traditional and renewable energy production and distribution infrastructure. Loss of power also impacts the water supply in some rural communities where there are no back-up generators for water pumps.
The vulnerability of the tourism sector to extreme weather events, therefore has even greater implications for increasing the recovery period and extending the loss of productivity in all other sectors within the country following an event. Job loss, whether temporary or permanent, could catapult the already vulnerable working-poor into extreme poverty. Climbing temperatures, along with higher potential for air pollution, will affect the health of vulnerable populations such as those in hospitals, the elderly, or those with cardio-respiratory conditions.
Tourism, an energy-intensive activity, will have to establish more efficient energy use. Adaptation strategies should include national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and transport infrastructure and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism economy.
Human factor and livelihoods in Placencia
Though a detail list of human and livelihood factors were discussed in the actual report, highlights included here will briefly focus on selected gender issues. For example, in Placencia, women often held lower paying jobs indirectly related to tourism and 70% headed the household. Men held higher paying jobs directly related to tourism and were the head of the house 95.2% of the time. 45% all residences were either married on in a common-law relationship. Nearly half the women were widowed.
Regionally, 7.2% of the population in the Caribbean is over 65. By 2025, 10% of total population will be people aged 65 and over. If poverty comes with aging, the feminization of poverty and ill health during old age is a result of exacerbated risks for women across the life course.
Marine Life and Terrestrial Biodiversity
Within the Caribbean regions, there are 3,408 plants, 600 species of fish, 540 birds, 150 mammals, 150 amphibians and reptiles. In addition, plant life is instrumental in maintaining the environment. For instance, sea grass and mangroves help protect the land from erosion and storm surges. Coral reefs that help protect the mangroves and annually provide $174 - $249 million in avoided damages. Forests can be threatened from storm damage, loss of soil moisture, pine beetles, and forest fires. Some fisheries are at risk of being overfished. Others have become devoid of fish that look for cooler water. Commercial fishermen in Belize, as well as those with an artisanal niche, have nothing to catch or take to market. In general, food security for all islanders is compromised.
Sea level rise/Storm Surge in Ambergris and Rocky Point
It is estimated that a one-meter rise in sea level would displace 100,000 people in the Caribbean region. A two-meter level rise would displace 260,000 people.
Adaptation can be achieved by building levees, preserving natural barriers such as wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs, or retreating to higher ground if it is available.
However, if no retreat locations are found, there are little to no provisions people to safer ground. Moreover, the United Nations has not designated adequate protection to evacuate and relocate for so-called "climate refugees".
Natural Disasters
The Caribbean is prone to climate change that exacerbates hurricanes, as well as flooding from too much rain or drought from too little rain. Children, the elderly, sick, and women are most at risk during natural as well as sea level rise events. In addition to injury or loss of life, island inhabitants, as well as tourists, also face exposure to malaria and dengue fever.
Four major adjacent plate tectonics ring the inner perimeter of the sea, putting many parts of the Caribbean at risk for major earthquakes and tsunamis. Due to the high incidents of climate-
Related events, most insurance is either too expensive for most islanders or simple no longer provided. To adapt to these events, risk pool insurance coverage is now offered through the
Caribbean Climate Change Risk Insurance Fund (CCRIF). This is a novel insurance provides faster short-term relief to small developing nations in need of climate-related recovery.
Other adaptive measures include coastal protection through flood wall; technology and public education; especially in elementary schools early warning systems reinforcement of buildings and infrastructure; implementation of a Vector Control Programme to quickly defend against malaria, dengue fever or chagas (parasites).

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